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人教版高中数学选修3离散型随机变量的均值教学设计
对于离散型随机变量，可以由它的概率分布列确定与该随机变量相关事件的概率。但在实际问题中，有时我们更感兴趣的是随机变量的某些数字特征。例如，要了解某班同学在一次数学测验中的总体水平，很重要的是看平均分；要了解某班同学数学成绩是否“两极分化”则需要考察这个班数学成绩的方差。我们还常常希望直接通过数字来反映随机变量的某个方面的特征，最常用的有期望与方差.二、 探究新知探究1.甲乙两名射箭运动员射中目标靶的环数的分布列如下表所示：如何比较他们射箭水平的高低呢？环数X 7 8 9 10甲射中的概率 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4乙射中的概率 0.15 0.25 0.4 0.2类似两组数据的比较,首先比较击中的平均环数,如果平均环数相等，再看稳定性.假设甲射箭n次，射中7环、8环、9环和10环的频率分别为：甲n次射箭射中的平均环数当n足够大时，频率稳定于概率，所以x稳定于7×0.1+8×0.2+9×0.3+10×0.4=9.即甲射中平均环数的稳定值(理论平均值)为9,这个平均值的大小可以反映甲运动员的射箭水平.同理，乙射中环数的平均值为7×0.15+8×0.25+9×0.4+10×0.2=8.65.
人教版高中数学选修3分类变量与列联表教学设计
一、 问题导学前面两节所讨论的变量,如人的身高、树的胸径、树的高度、短跑100m世界纪录和创纪录的时间等,都是数值变量,数值变量的取值为实数.其大小和运算都有实际含义.在现实生活中,人们经常需要回答一定范围内的两种现象或性质之间是否存在关联性或相互影响的问题.例如,就读不同学校是否对学生的成绩有影响,不同班级学生用于体育锻炼的时间是否有差别,吸烟是否会增加患肺癌的风险,等等,本节将要学习的独立性检验方法为我们提供了解决这类问题的方案。在讨论上述问题时,为了表述方便,我们经常会使用一种特殊的随机变量,以区别不同的现象或性质,这类随机变量称为分类变量.分类变量的取值可以用实数表示,例如,学生所在的班级可以用1,2,3等表示,男性、女性可以用1,0表示,等等.在很多时候,这些数值只作为编号使用,并没有通常的大小和运算意义,本节我们主要讨论取值于{0,1}的分类变量的关联性问题.
XX年新学期国旗下讲话稿暨新学期开学典礼发言稿
老师们、同学们：过年好，今天我们全体师生又一次集合在国旗下，这是我们全体师生16年的第一次聚会，它预示着我们新的学习和工作生活的开始。一年之计在于春，一日之计在于晨，希望我们全体xx中学人抓住春天的希望，规划好自己一学期的发展；更希望我们xx中学人珍惜每一个早晨，踏踏实实的过好每一天。相信在我们每一位师生的共同努力下，我们每一天都会与收获，每一周都会有积累，每一月都会有进步，每一学期都会有突破的喜悦。今天，我借用别的校长的发言来作为我今天第一次国旗下的内容，以期与老师们、同学们共勉！他的主题是《不读书、不吃苦，你要青春干嘛》短暂的寒假结束了，新的学期开始了。回忆十来天的假期，你是否有值得回味的事情和经历呢？我想，不同的人肯定有不同的收获和感受。有的同学“收获”的胡吃海睡，做的是“低头追剧”一族，并且生活的节奏全部被打乱——该睡的时候不睡，该起的时候不起，该吃的时候不吃；而有的同学选择了认真完成寒假作业之余适当放松；有的同学选择了放下包袱，在旅途中放松身心，增长见识；也有的同学撇开喧嚣纷扰，选择了一本好书，与伟大的心灵对话，让自己的精神旅行；有的同学会利用丰富的网络资源来强化自己的薄弱学科，实现弯道超越；还有的同学会和自己的良师益友促膝谈心，获取前进的动力，感悟人生的真谛！规划不同，过法不同，寒假对于我们的意义就不同。有的同学可能难以理解，假期有必要这么拼，这么苦，这么累吗？我的回答是大有必要。这就是今天我要告诉大家的，怕吃苦，苦一辈子，不怕苦，苦一阵子。
新人教版高中英语必修3Unit 2 Morals and Virtues-Discovering Useful Structure教学设计
1. 表示时间。Hearing these stories, I’m skeptical about the place. = When I heard these stories. . . 2. 表示原因。Not knowing his address, I can’t send this book to him. = Because/Since/As I don’t know his address. . . 3. 表示结果。His father died, leaving him a lot of money. =. . . and left him a lot of money4. 表示条件。Going straight down the road, you will find the department store. = If you go straight down the road. . . 5. 表示让步。Being tired, they went on working. =Although they were tired. . . 6. 表示行为方式、伴随情况或补充说明。He lay on the grass, staring at the sky for a long time. =. . . and stared at the sky for a long time注意：非谓语动词作状语时, 如所提供的动词不能和句子中的主语保持一致, 动词-ing形式必须有自己的逻辑主语, 通常由名词或代词来担任, 这就是独立主格结构。The last bus having gone, we had to walk home. (having gone的逻辑主语是the last bus, 而不是we)Weather permitting, the football match will be played on Friday. (permitting的逻辑主语是time, 而不是the football match)Step 7 Practice1. ________(study) hard, you are sure to get first prize. 2. People use plastic in their daily life, _______(leave) large amounts of waste. 3. ________(work) hard at your lessons, you are to succeed. 4. The old man, ____________(work) abroad for twenty years, is on the way back to his motherland. 5. ______________(finish) his homework, he was playing on the playground. Answers: 1. Studying 2. leaving 3. Working 4.having worked 5. Having finishedStep 8 HomeworkFinish the homework on Page 22.
新人教版高中英语必修3Unit 2 Morals and Virtues-Listening &Speaking＆Talking教学设计
Example:One day, a poor boy who was trying to pay his way through school by sending newspapers door to door found that he only had one dime(一角）left. He was so hungry that he decided to beg for a meal at the next house.However, he lost his nerve when a lovely young woman opened the door. Instead of a meal he asked for a drink of water. She thought he looked hungry so she brought him a large glass of milk. He drank it slowly, and then asked, “How much do I owe you?” “You don’t owe me anything,” she replied, “Mother has taught me never to accept pay for a kindness.” “Then I thank you from the bottom of my heart.” With these words, Howard Kelly left that house.Years later the woman became badly ill and was finally sent to the hospital in a big city. Dr. Howard Kelly, now famous, was called in. When he heard the name of the town she came from, a strange light filled his eyes. Dressed in his doctor’s clothes, Dr. Kelly went into her room and recognized her at once. From that day on, he gave special attention to her, and decided to do his best to save her life.At last the woman was saved. Dr. Kelly asked the business office to pass the final bill to him. He looked at it and then wrote something on the side. The bill was sent to the woman’s room. She was afraid to open it because she was sure that it would take the rest of her life to pay for it off. Finally she looked, and the note on the side of the bill caught her attention. She read these words: “Paid in full with a glass of milk, Dr. Howard Kelly.” Tear of joy flooded her eyes.
新人教版高中英语必修3Unit 2 Morals and Virtues-Reading and Thinking教学设计
The topic of this part is “Learn to make choices in life”.The Listening & Speaking & Talking part aims at the moral dilemmas, and this part is about making choices in life. The heroin is Lin Qiaozhi, a famous medical scientist, made a great contribution to our country’s medical care. Most importantly, her life experience can inspire our students whether in studying or the development of career. she had moral dilemmas and life choices, which are similar to the students who will step into society. Besides, Lin has quite good virtues like kindness, self-improvement, insistence, job-loving , generosity and responsibility, which is worth being learned.Concretely, this article is a biography about Lin Qiaozhi. The article tells her whole life according the timeline, among which the life choices is emphasized. For example, whether married or chased her dream, returned home or stayed abroad, family or public, her choices all reflected her faith, spirit, responsibility and devotion.1. Fast reading to get the detailed information about Lin Qiaozhi; careful reading to do the deductive information.2. Learn the reading skills--deductive judgement according the context.3. Study the structure features and language features. 4. Communicate about Lin’s life choices and reflect their own life choices.1. Learn the reading skills--deductive judgement according the context.2. Study the structure features and language features.3. Communicate about Lin’s life choices and reflect their own life choices.Step 1 Lead in---Small talkWhat are some important life choices?Importance choices: university study, jobs and marriage partners. Because they can determine our future.
新人教版高中英语必修3Unit 2 Morals and Virtues-Reading for Writing教学设计
1. 这个寓言是一个关于一位国王古寓言。 The fable is an old fable about a king.2.作者用这个故事让读者对于社区的问题负有个人责任的必要印象深刻。The author used the story to impress upon readers with the need to take personal responsibility for problems in the community.3. 这个故事十分成功的实现了它的目的。The story was quite successful in achieving its purpose.Step 7 WritingPlease write a review of the story according the outline above.The fable is an old fable about a king who thought his people are lazy, so he put a large stone in the middle of the road and hides and waited to see if anyone will try to move it.The author used this story to impress upon readers with the need to take personal responsibility for problems in the community. The story was quite successful in achieving its purpose, and I liked it because it had a clear moral.However, while the moral of the story is clear, the actions of the king seemed pointless to me, because none of the characters in the story learnt anything. For this reason, I think there are better stories that can be used to impress upon people with the need for personal responsibility.Step 8 Pair workExchange drafts with a partner. Use this checklist to help your partner revise his/her draft.1. Does the writer give a short description of the story ?2. Does the description include the most important details of the story ?3. Does the writer give his or her opinion about the character or their actions ?4. Is the review well-organised ? 5. Does the writer use the -ing form as the adverbial correctly in the writing ?6. Are there any grammar, spelling, or punctuation errors ?Step 9 HomeworkPut up your revised draft in the classroom or read it to your class.
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 1 Science and Scientists-Discovering useful structures教学设计
The grammatical structure of this unit is predicative clause. Like object clause and subject clause, predicative clause is one of Nominal Clauses. The leading words of predicative clauses are that, what, how, what, where, as if, because, etc.The design of teaching activities aims to guide students to perceive the structural features of predicative clauses and think about their ideographic functions. Beyond that, students should be guided to use this grammar in the context apporpriately and flexibly.1. Enable the Ss to master the usage of the predicative clauses in this unit.2. Enable the Ss to use the predicative patterns flexibly.3. Train the Ss to apply some skills by doing the relevant exercises.1.Guide students to perceive the structural features of predicative clauses and think about their ideographic functions.2.Strengthen students' ability of using predicative clauses in context, but also cultivate their ability of text analysis and logical reasoning competence.Step1: Underline all the examples in the reading passage, where noun clauses are used as the predicative. Then state their meaning and functions.1) One theory was that bad air caused the disease.2) Another theory was that cholera was caused by an infection from germs in food or water.3) The truth was that the water from the Broad Street had been infected by waste.Sum up the rules of grammar:1. 以上黑体部分在句中作表语。2. 句1、2、3中的that在从句中不作成分，只起连接作用。 Step2: Review the basic components of predicative clauses1.Definition
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 4 Journey Across a Vast Land教学设计
当孩子们由父母陪同时，他们才被允许进入这个运动场。3．过去分词(短语)作状语时的几种特殊情况(1)过去分词(短语)在句中作时间、条件、原因、让步状语时，相当于对应的时间、条件、原因及让步状语从句。Seen from the top of the mountain (＝When it is seen from the top of the mountain), the whole town looks more beautiful.从山顶上看，整个城市看起来更美了。Given ten more minutes (＝If we are given ten more minutes), we will finish the work perfectly.如果多给十分钟，我们会完美地完成这项工作。Greatly touched by his words (＝Because she was greatly touched by his words), she was full of tears.由于被他的话深深地感动，她满眼泪花。Warned of the storm (＝Though they were warned of the storm), the farmers were still working on the farm.尽管被警告了风暴的到来，但农民们仍在农场干活。(2)过去分词(短语)在句中作伴随、方式等状语时，可改为句子的并列谓语或改为并列分句。The teacher came into the room, followed by two students (＝and was followed by two students)．后面跟着两个学生，老师走进了房间。He spent the whole afternoon, accompanied by his mom(＝and was accompanied by his mom)．他由母亲陪着度过了一整个下午。
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 1 Science and Scientists-Learning about Language教学设计
Step 7: complete the discourse according to the grammar rules.Cholera used to be one of the most 1.__________ (fear) diseases in the world. In the early 19th century, _2_________ an outbreak of cholera hit Europe, millions of people died. But neither its cause, 3__________ its cure was understood. A British doctor, John Snow, wanted to solve the problem and he knew that cholera would not be controlled _4_________ its cause was found. In general, there were two contradictory theories 5 __________ explained how cholera spread. The first suggested that bad air caused the disease. The second was that cholera was caused by an _6_________(infect) from germs in food or water. John Snow thought that the second theory was correct but he needed proof. So when another outbreak of cholera hit London in 1854, he began to investigate. Later, with all the evidence he _7_________ (gather), John Snow was able to announce that the pump water carried cholera germs. Therefore, he had the handle of the pump _8_________ (remove) so that it couldn't be used. Through his intervention，the disease was stopped in its tracks. What is more, John Snow found that some companies sold water from the River Thames that __9__________________ (pollute) by raw waste. The people who drank this water were much more likely _10_________ (get) cholera than those who drank pure or boiled water. Through John Snow's efforts, the _11_________ (threaten) of cholera around the world saw a substantial increase. Keys： 1.feared 2.when 3. nor 4.unless 5.that/which 6.infection 7.had gathered 8.removed 9.was polluted 10.to get 11. threat
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 1 Science and Scientists-Reading and thinking教学设计
Step 5： After learning the text, discuss with your peers about the following questions:1.John Snow believed Idea 2 was right. How did he finally prove it?2. Do you think John Snow would have solved this problem without the map?3. Cholera is a 19th century disease. What disease do you think is similar to cholera today?SARS and Covid-19 because they are both deadly and fatally infectious, have an unknown cause and need serious public health care to solve them urgently.keys:1. John Snow finally proved his idea because he found an outbreak that was clearly related to cholera, collected information and was able to tie cases outside the area to the polluted water.2. No. The map helped John Snow organize his ideas. He was able to identify those households that had had many deaths and check their water-drinking habits. He identified those houses that had had no deaths and surveyed their drinking habits. The evidence clearly pointed to the polluted water being the cause.3. SARS and Covid-19 because they are both deadly and fatally infectious, have an unknown cause and need serious public health care to solve them urgently.Step 6: Consolidate what you have learned by filling in the blanks:John Snow was a well-known _1___ in London in the _2__ century. He wanted to find the _3_____ of cholera in order to help people ___4_____ it. In 1854 when a cholera __5__ London, he began to gather information. He ___6__ on a map ___7___ all the dead people had lived and he found that many people who had ___8____ (drink) the dirty water from the __9____ died. So he decided that the polluted water ___10____ cholera. He suggested that the ___11__ of all water supplies should be _12______ and new methods of dealing with ____13___ water be found. Finally, “King Cholera” was __14_____.Keys: 1. doctor 2. 19th 3.cause 4.infected with 5.hit 6.marked 7.where 8.drunk 9.pump 10.carried 11.source 12.examined 13.polluted 14.defeatedHomework: Retell the text after class and preview its language points
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 1 Science and Scientists-Using langauge教学设计
This happens because the dish soap molecules have a strong negative charge, and the milk molecules have a strong positive charge. Like magnets, these molecules are attracted to each other, and so they appear to move around on the plate, taking the food coloring with them, making it look like the colors are quickly moving to escape from the soap.Listening text:? Judy: Oh, I'm so sorry that you were ill and couldn't come with us on our field trip. How are you feeling now? Better?? Bill: Much better, thanks. But how was it?? Judy: Wonderful! I especially liked an area of the museum called Light Games.it was really cool. They had a hall of mirrors where I could see myself reflected thousands of times!? Bill: A hall of mirrors can be a lot of fun. What else did they have?? Judy: Well, they had an experiment where we looked at a blue screen for a while, and then suddenly we could see tiny bright lights moving around on it. You'll never guess what those bright lights were!? Bill: Come on, tell me!? Judy: They were our own blood cells. For some reason, our eyes play tricks on us when we look at a blue screen, and we can see our own blood cells moving around like little lights! But there was another thing I liked better. I stood in front of a white light, and it cast different shadows of me in every color of the rainbow!? Bill: Oh, I wish I had been there. Tell me more!? Judy: Well, they had another area for sound. They had a giant piano keyboard that you could use your feet to play. But then, instead of playing the sounds of a piano, it played the voices of classical singers! Then they had a giant dish, and when you spoke into it, it reflected the sound back and made it louder. You could use it to speak in a whisper to someone 17 meters away.? Bill: It all sounds so cool. I wish I could have gone with you? Judy: I know, but we can go together this weekend. I'd love to go there again!? Bill: That sounds like a great idea!
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 3 Food and Culture-Discovering useful structures教学设计
The newspaper reported more than 100 people had been killed in the thunderstorm.报纸报道说有一百多人在暴风雨中丧生。(2)before、when、by the time、until、after、once等引导的时间状语从句的谓语是一般过去时，以及by、before后面接过去的时间时，主句动作发生在从句的动作或过去的时间之前且表示被动时，要用过去完成时的被动语态。By the time my brother was 10, he had been sent to Italy.我弟弟10岁前就已经被送到意大利了。Tons of rice had been produced by the end of last month. 到上月底已生产了好几吨大米。(3) It was the first/second/last ... time that ...句中that引导的定语从句中，主语与谓语构成被动关系时，要用过去完成时的被动语态。It was the first time that I had seen the night fact to face in one and a half years. 这是我一年半以来第一次亲眼目睹夜晚的景色。(4)在虚拟语气中，条件句表示与过去事实相反，且主语与谓语构成被动关系时，要用过去完成时的被动语态。If I had been instructed by him earlier, I would have finished the task.如果我早一点得到他的指示，我早就完成这项任务了。If I had hurried, I wouldn't have missed the train.如果我快点的话，我就不会误了火车。If you had been at the party, you would have met him. 如果你去了晚会，你就会见到他的。
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 3 Food and Culture-Reading and thinking教学设计
The discourse explores the link between food and culture from a foreign’s perspective and it records some authentic Chinese food and illustrates the cultural meaning, gerography features and historic tradition that the food reflects. It is aimed to lead students to understand and think about the connection between food and culture. While teaching, the teacher should instruct students to find out the writing order and the writer’s experieces and feelings towards Chinese food and culture.1.Guide the students to read the text, sort out the information and dig out the topic.2.Understand the cultural connotation, regional characteristics and historical tradition of Chinese cuisine3.Understand and explore the relationship between food and people's personality4.Guide the students to use the cohesive words in the text5.Lead students to accurately grasp the real meaning of the information and improve the overall understanding ability by understanding the implied meaning behind the text.1. Enable the Ss to understand the structure and the writing style of the passage well.2. Lead the Ss to understand and think further about the connection between food and geography and local character traits.Step1: Prediction before reading. Before you read, look at the title, and the picture. What do you think this article is about?keys:It is about various culture and cuisine about a place or some countries.
新人教版高中英语选修2Unit 5 First Aid-Discovering useful structures教学设计
You have no excuse for not going.你没有理由不去。He was punished for not having finished his homework.他因未完成作业而受到惩罚。2．动词ing形式复合结构由物主代词或人称代词宾格、名词所有格或普通格加动词ing，即“sb./sb.'s＋doing”构成。动词ing形式的复合结构实际上是给动词ing形式加了一个逻辑主语。动词ing形式的复合结构有四种形式：①形容词性物主代词＋动词ing②名词所有格＋动词ing③代词宾格＋动词ing④名词＋动词ingHer coming to help encouraged all of us.她来帮忙鼓舞了我们所有人。The baby was made awake by the door suddenly shutting.这个婴儿被突然的关门声吵醒了。Can you imagine him/Jack cooking at home?你能想象他/杰克在家做饭的样子吗？无生命名词无论是作主语还是作宾语都不能用第②种形式。Tom's winning first prize last year impressed me a lot.汤姆去年得了一等奖使我印象深刻。Do you mind my/me/Jack's/Jack leaving now?你介意我/杰克现在离开吗？Excuse me for my not coming on time．很抱歉我没能按时来。His father's being ill made him worried.他父亲病了，他很担心。We are looking forward to the singer's/the singer to give us a concert.我们盼望着这位歌手来给我们举办一场演唱会。
部编人教版四年级下册《 千年梦圆在今朝》教案
一、创设情境，导入新课。1.学生交流“神舟五号”有关资料，【出示课件2】“神舟五号”发射与飞行过程的录像。2.这节课让我们走进课文追寻奋斗者的足迹，让我们走进课文去探求去思考。（板书课题：8千年梦圆在今朝）请同学们读读课文前面的阅读提示，看看阅读提示给我们提出了哪些阅读建议。【出示课件3】默读课文，为什么千年的飞天梦能在今朝实现？二、初读课文，整体感知。（一）初读，解决字词。1.读课文，用自己喜欢的方式认识生字词语，扫除字词障碍。2.出示词语。
XX镇中心初级中学2023—2024学年度第二学期工作总结
五、总务后勤工作方面在本学期的教育教学工作中，总务工作在工作中坚持发挥后盾保障作用，本着以教书育人，服务育人，服务教学的原则，坚持履行学校的整体工作步骤，切实完成好学校的总务后勤工作。1.在后勤服务工作中，本着服务教学的意识，着力强化后勤队伍建设，努力增强服务意识。2.严格履行财务制度，规范财务行为。在经费使用方面执行预算审批制度，在购物方面实行采购审批和政府采购制度，杜绝了各种不正之风，保证了资金的效益最大化。3.学校和各班班主任签定了班班通责任书，加强了班班通设备管理。同时制定了《班级财产管理制度》，把公物管理列入班主任考核内容之一，加强了财产管理。
第一学期第一周国旗下讲话
亲爱的老师们，同学们：大家好！今天是我校xx—xx学年第一学期正式上课的第一天。在新的学期里，我们又迎来了近300名初一年级的新同学，在此，我代表全校师生对新同学的到来表示热烈地欢迎，并预祝全体新生在老师们的谆谆教导和悉心指导下获得更好的发展。老师们，同学们，学校今天的发展，已经有了一个历史性地突破。目前，我校有教职员工86人，在校生人数800多名，尤其是上级组织派德州五中名师李朝霞同志到我校任副校长，分管学生管理工作，为我校带来了良好的社会声誉，新调入我校的孟庆霞老师和七年级新生的加入，使学校更加充满了生机与活力。也借此机会，对李校长和孟老师的加入表示衷心欢迎和真诚地祝愿，祝愿她们在我校心情愉快，工作顺利。同时，我代表学校领导班子对全体师生在新的学期提出如下要求：希望全体教师要发扬面向全体学生，认真负责，严谨求实，探索奉献的精神，要关心爱护学生，积极探索并推行培养学生自主学习和自主管理的先进模式，“坚持深化课堂改革不动摇，坚持学校精细管理不动摇”的学校管理思想，坚守“从最后一名学生抓起，不让一名学生掉队，为学生的终身幸福奠基”的教育理念，努力把学生培养成为德才兼备、具有终身发展潜能、适应社会发展需求、富有民族精神和世界眼光的接班人。
一元一次方程教案教学设计
1、方程的定义1)像这种用等号“=”来表示相等关系的式子，叫等式。(老师给出定义。）2)请大家观察左边的这些式子，看看它们有什么共同的特征？(老师提出问题。）3）列方程时，要先设字母表示未知数，然后根据问题中的相等关系，写出含有未知数的等式叫做方程。（学生思考后，老师给出新学内容方程的定义。）4）判断方程的两个关键要素： ①有未知数 ②是等式（老师提问，并给出。）
统编版三年级语文上胡萝卜先生的长胡子教案
1.胡萝卜先生的胡子可真长啊！胡萝卜先生继续走着，接下来会发生什么有趣的事情呢？（学生发挥想象，预测接下来的故事情节。） 2.自读课文第4-8自然段，看看与你们自己的预测一样不一样吧！学生自己读故事，发现自己的预测和文本内容不一样时及时修正自己的想法。（1）出示关键句：线实在太短了，他的风筝只能飞过屋顶。根据课文内容，预测接下来的故事发展。（2）出示关键句：鸟太太正在找绳子晾小鸟的尿布。根据插图中鸟太太遇见胡萝卜先生惊喜的神态，预测接下来的故事发展。 3.文章写完了吗？为什么？（结尾的省略号就告诉我们这个故事还没有结束。） 既然没有结束，我们就来续编故事吧！可以结合上面的男孩的语言、动作续编故事，也可以有自己新奇的想法。大家之前预测的故事发展只要合乎情理也可以继续预测。
